Il Nuovo Postiglione - Brazil's Lula launches fourth term bid as Trump looms over campaign

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist titan of Latin American politics who is loved and despised in near-equal measure in Brazil, will launch his seventh bid for the presidency at a convention of his Worker's Party (PT) in Sao Paulo.

The former metalworker and unionist made a dramatic comeback when he returned to power three years ago after a stint in jail on corruption charges that were later dismissed, and two previous terms from 2003-2010.

He is seeking a fourth term in office in a race that carries a strong sense of deja vu in the polarized nation where the past two elections pitted a PT candidate against far-right firebrand Jair Bolsonaro.

This time Lula's main rival is the former president's eldest son Flavio Bolsonaro. The 45-year-old senator stepped into the role after his father was convicted of plotting a coup to prevent Lula from taking power in 2023.

The Bolsonaro family is allied with US President Donald Trump, who has backed several victorious right-wing candidates in Latin America and whose shadow looms large over the Brazilian campaign.

"In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it does not belong," said Lula.

In July, the United States imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods, alleging unfair trade practices which Brasilia denies.

Last year, encouraged by another of Jair Bolsonaro's sons, Eduardo, Washington hiked tariffs in retaliation for the trial against the former leader. These were largely lifted after diplomatic efforts.

Staring down a renewed trade war, Lula has built his strategy around defending Brazilian sovereignty and reminding voters of his four decades as the country's most consequential political figure.

He has derided Flavio Bolsonaro as a "traitor to the nation."

"The sovereignty message comes at the perfect time for Lula. At a moment when he was experiencing a drop in popularity it allows him to identify an external enemy to blame for some of the problems we are facing," Leonardo Paz, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told AFP.

- Crime and corruption -

A recent survey by the Datafolha institute showed that 48 percent of those polled would vote for Lula in a second round.

Flavio scored 43 percent despite being battered by a series of scandals.

In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by a razor-thin margin.

The veteran leftist's administration boasts solid economic growth and record employment levels. But families complain about the cost of living and the fiscal deficit is worsening.

The incumbent is also on the back foot when it comes to Brazilians' top concern: security.

Tens of millions of people live in poor neighborhoods controlled by organized crime.

Corruption allegations have touched both campaigns.

Flavio Bolsonaro is under scrutiny for seeking money from a banker accused of major financial fraud to fund a film about his father.

This week, a probe was opened into one of Lula's sons, nicknamed "Lulinha," who is suspected of corruption and influence peddling.

S.Urgo--INP