Il Nuovo Postiglione - Philippine Senate trial to decide VP Duterte's political future

Thousands of police have been positioned around the Senate in Manila to provide additional security for a trial that could take months if prosecutors are given their requested 62 days to present evidence.

The House of Representatives impeached the 48-year-old daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte on May 11 on allegations of graft, corruption, bribery and an alleged assassination plot against one-time ally President Ferdinand Marcos.

But only a guilty verdict by two-thirds of the bitterly divided 24-seat Senate can strip her of the vice presidency and permanently bar her from elected office.

A public survey released in late May showed Duterte as the front-runner in the 2028 race, with 51 percent of respondents saying they planned to vote for her.

The articles of impeachment focus on misappropriation of public funds, unexplained assets, bribery of public officials, and the alleged death threat against Marcos and other family members.

The threat against Marcos stemmed from a late-night news briefing in which Duterte claimed to have hired an assassin to kill the president should he have her cut down first.

She later said the comments had been misinterpreted.

Duterte's camp has yet to indicate if she will attend the trial in person.

- 'A difficult pathway' -

The Senate tasked with weighing the case against Duterte has spent two months in turmoil, with whiplash leadership changes, two key Duterte allies charged with corruption, and another fleeing an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant.

In May, 13 lawmakers allied with Duterte took control of the Senate only minutes before the House impeachment vote, a move that was later reversed amid a boycott by the vice president's allies.

One of those allies, Senator Ronald Dela Rosa -- enforcer of her father's bloody drug crackdown -- briefly took refuge in the Senate building as officers attempted to execute the ICC warrant.

He disappeared after a tense standoff that saw Senate security guards fire shots.

Another pro-Duterte senator, Jose "Jinggoy" Estrada, was later arrested for allegedly receiving kickbacks worth more than 573 million pesos ($9.3 million) over a flood control project, while Senator Rodante Marcoleta was hit with corruption charges on Friday.

The Philippine Constitution requires a guilty vote by "two-thirds of all the members" of the Senate to convict, but impeachment prosecutor Representative Gerville "Jinky" Luistro has argued the threshold should only include senators who are physically present.

Even if the formula were adjusted, however, Cleve Arguelles of pollster WR Numero told AFP he does not believe the numbers are there to convict.

"I think it's quite clear that there is a very difficult pathway to conviction," he said.

"Whether we're talking about 16 (senators)... or other interpretations, it's still quite far from the conviction threshold."

- Dynasties at stake -

While President Marcos has taken care to publicly distance himself from the impeachment process, it has unfolded against the backdrop of a blistering political brawl between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties.

Cracks in the fragile alliance began showing within weeks of their landslide 2022 presidential election victory.

The feud exploded into open warfare in 2025 with Duterte's first impeachment -- later overturned by the Supreme Court -- and the subsequent arrest and transfer of her father to face crimes against humanity charges at the ICC.

The outcome of the Senate trial has serious implications for both sides, said Arguelles.

"All of these factions are fighting for their political futures," he said.

"For the Marcos administration, it's the fact that as soon as they get out of power... they have to make sure that the next administration won't go after them."

And even if Duterte should avoid conviction, she is unlikely to emerge unscathed after months of intense public scrutiny, according to Arguelles.

The allegations against her could cost Duterte "at the very least, the support of the independents or the moderates", he said.

M.Dodaro--INP