Il Nuovo Postiglione - How NATO will try to keep Trump happy at Ankara summit

Allies hope to avoid a blow-up in Turkey by showcasing new spending and deals, and lavishing on hospitality.

Here's how NATO will try to keep the mercurial US leader happy:

- Show him the money -

A year after Trump pressured them into agreeing to ramp up defence-related spending to five percent of GDP, NATO allies will look to convince him they're making progress.

Although they've got until 2035 to hit the target, the US president will want proof Europe is addressing his long-standing grievance.

"It's meant to be a demonstration to Trump of what a success he has had, and where everyone thanks him for pushing them," a NATO diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

NATO chief Mark Rutte -- one of the few European leaders still in Trump's good books -- previewed the pitch at the White House last week.

Holding up a chart emblazoned with "THE TRUMP TRILLION" in gold lettering, he laid out additional European spending since Trump first took office in 2017.

"This is your evidence," Rutte said.

But while budgets overall are up there are weak spots that could annoy Trump: three countries, including the Czech Republic and Slovenia, are expected to slip under the two-percent benchmark this year.

- Help out on Iran? -

While Trump has secured a preliminary deal with Iran, the situation remains volatile and any flare-ups could still overshadow the summit.

Trump is still smarting over Europe's response to the war when several countries restricted use of bases for US forces.

To show willing, France and Britain have drafted plans for a possible Strait of Hormuz mission and countries have moved assets such as minesweepers closer if needed.

NATO itself would likely play little direct role, but European support could keep Trump's criticisms in check.

"The outcome will be dependent on what the situation is around Iran at the time -- or is the bad blood left over from Trump feeling that he wasn't helped," said Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund think tank.

- Art of the deals -

Beyond headline defence spending, NATO also wants to show Trump it's turning money into increased capabilities.

Diplomats and NATO officials say countries have been asked to hold off announcing major deals -- to create a bigger bang in Ankara.

Officials say contracts worth billions of dollars should be inked with US and European firms at a side forum.

Rutte is keen to get Trump -- known for his love of an eye-catching deal -- to personally oversee the business bonanza.

- European-ise NATO -

Under Trump, the United States insists it wants Europe to take the lead role for its own defences and Washington has already moved to scale back commitments.

That includes announcing cuts to the assets it makes available to NATO commanders, and a six-month review of forces in Europe.

Europe acknowledges it still needs US backing, but leaders will aim to show Trump they are stepping up to make NATO more "European" by taking on a bigger role.

"What the Europeans are doing is trying to increase their responsibility, and at the same time to lock in the US as much as possible," said Maria Martisiute of the European Policy Centre.

- Turkish host with the most -

Trump has recently clashed with a string of European leaders -- most lately Italy's Giorgia Meloni.

But luckily for NATO he still seems on good terms with Turkey's veteran leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"Except for the fact that it was being held in Turkey by President Erdogan, I don't think I would have gone to it," Trump said last week.

The summit venue may also appeal: Erdogan's gargantuan marble-lined presidential palace.

- Short and (hopefully) sweet -

Finally, as with last year's summit in The Hague, NATO is keeping this one short.

Trump flies in for a dinner on July 7 before NATO leaders hold a single formal session the next day -- limiting the chances for controversy.

The bar for success will in any case be low.

"For a successful summit, I would say all we need is for Trump not to go against NATO, or criticise NATO, or undermine NATO's role," Peter Bator, Slovakia's former ambassador to NATO, told AFP.

"We need Trump, at least, to stay silent on that."

O.R.Lucchese--INP