Il Nuovo Postiglione - Votes being counted in UK by-election set to decide PM Starmer's political fate

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, a veteran of the ruling centre-left Labour party, is seeking to win the contest for the Makerfield constituency in northwestern England.

If successful, he can then launch his widely anticipated attempt to oust Starmer as party leader and snatch the keys to Downing Street.

"Let's vote for positive change that this country needs, let's forever associate this area, this constituency, with having brought a change to British politics that it's long needed," Burnham, who hails from the region, said in a final campaign video posted on social media.

Counting began shortly after polling stations closed at 10:00 pm (2100 GMT), some 15 hours after opening.

The result is expected in the early hours of Friday.

Pollsters predict Burnham will win the landmark by-election, but he has faced a tough fight from the hard-right Reform UK party, represented in this election by local plumber Robert Kenyon.

"Almost undoubtedly it's in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister," political scientist John Curtice told AFP.

"If Burnham does win, his path to 10 Downing Street looks to be relatively assured. If they deny him the opportunity, it may be that Starmer will survive, at least for the time being."

- 'King of the North' -

Starmer, in office nearly two years, has been clinging to power since Labour's drubbing in local and regional elections last month.

He has been rocked by policy U-turns and a scandal over his ill-fated appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to Washington.

He has endured several ministerial resignations and rock-bottom personal poll ratings, with Reform leading national surveys for over a year.

But ex-lawyer Starmer, 63, has refused to quit and said he intends to fight any leadership challenge, insisting his landslide July 2024 general election victory gave him a five-year mandate to govern.

Amid growing impatience within his party, Labour MP Josh Simons quit so Burnham could try to return to parliament and run for leader.

While Makerfield's 76,000 electorate typically votes Labour, Simons held a majority of only around 5,300.

Reform, led by anti-immigration firebrand Nigel Farage, also won every council ward in the predominantly white, working-class area during last month's council polls.

But the personal popularity of Burnham -- a three-term Manchester mayor nicknamed the "King of the North" -- is likely to see him triumph over Reform's Kenyon, polls predict.

Farage, who campaigned in the constituency election day, said on X: "the voters are telling me that Andy Burnham is using Makerfield as a stepping stone".

Kenyon has been dogged by past offensive remarks about women, while the fringe Restore Britain party risks splitting the hard-right vote.

- 'Last hope' -

In Ashton-in-Makerfield, Hazel Ellis, 61, told AFP she planned to vote for Reform.

"I'm willing to give them a go because this is the last hope for Britain now," she said.

Burnham, who polls show is Labour's most popular politician, hails from the party's so-called soft-left wing and has been an outspoken critic of Starmer's more-centrist rule.

There was clapping and cheering as he met Thursday with supporters outside his Makerfield campaign headquarters.

Kamran Shirpor, a 49-year-old taxi driver, told AFP in Ashton-in-Makerfield, that Burnham is "a very popular guy around here".

"He tries to help people. I like him and think he'd be a good prime minister."

Under Labour party rules, leadership candidates must be an MP, which Burnham was between 2001 and 2017.

If he wins Thursday he would easily muster the support of 81 of Labour's 400-plus MPs -- the minimum needed to kickstart a contest.

But Burnham allies are hopeful Starmer's top team could persuade him to step down instead, avoiding a fight.

Ex-health minister Wes Streeting, also manoeuvring for the top job, said Tuesday Starmer should be given "space over the weekend" to consider his future.

F.M.Buffo--INP