Il Nuovo Postiglione - Restore Britain, the hard-right party troubling Nigel Farage

Led by businessman and ex-football chairman Rupert Lowe, Restore is tipped to deprive Farage's Reform UK party of victory over the ruling Labour party in a crunch special election on Thursday.

Lowe, 68, formed Restore as an alternative on the right of British politics in February following his split from Reform last year after he and Farage, 62, fell out spectacularly.

A member of parliament since July 2024, Lowe is Restore's solitary lawmaker in the United Kingdom's 650-seat House of Commons.

But the party's profile is soaring, thanks largely to Musk, who promotes Lowe's posts on X, and as the UK witnesses frequent, sometimes violent, anti-migrant demonstrations.

"We are bringing disaffected voters back to the voting booth," Lowe told AFP in a WhatsApp message ahead of Thursday's by-election for the Makerfield parliamentary constituency in northwest England.

- Mass deportations -

The vote is a two-horse race between Labour candidate Andy Burnham, seeking to return to parliament so he can try to oust Keir Starmer as prime minister, and Reform's Robert Kenyon, a plumber.

Pollsters expect Restore's candidate Rebecca Shepherd, a local businesswoman, to secure somewhere between five and eight percent of the vote to finish third.

That vote share could be greater than the difference between Burnham, who is expected to win, and Kenyon, whose party lost a separate by-election in February to the anti-establishment left-wing Greens.

Political scientist John Curtice told AFP it was possible that "Restore Britain's intervention stands between Mr. Kenyon and his ability to defeat Andy Burnham".

"If Reform lose again they risk losing momentum politically," said Daniel Trilling, author of "If We Tolerate This: How the British Establishment Made the Far Right Respectable".

"Their own party and supporters are more likely to get frustrated, and we're more likely to see more splits of the kind that have already emerged," he told AFP.

Restore's headline policy is mass deportations. It would remove all irregular migrants, plus foreign nationals who commit crimes, are unable to speak English or who claim benefits.

The fringe outfit also supports banning the burqa and a referendum on restoring the death penalty.

"Restore has staked out a position to the right of Reform by taking a fairly openly ethno-nationalist position on issues of immigration, race, and identity in Britain," said Trilling.

While arch-Eurosceptic Farage has helped push political discourse in Britain rightwards "with a nudge and a wink", Lowe "just is far more blatant", Trilling added.

Amid anger over a knife attack in Northern Ireland allegedly carried out by a Sudanese man, Lowe posted on X a screengrab of footage of the knife attack alongside the words "Millions must go".

- 'Extreme' -

The post was reposted by Musk, a frequent backer of far-right politicians in European elections, who has also tweeted to his 240 million followers that "only Restore Britain can save Britain".

Lowe has made more than £57,000 ($76,500) from X since December 2024, declarations to parliament show.

"All support of decent, concerned people including Elon Musk is essential if we are to succeed in cleaning out the Augean Stables," Lowe told AFP, alluding to a huge task to get rid of perceived corruption.

Campaign group Hope Not Hate has labelled Lowe "Britain's most extreme MP" and the Times newspaper reported in April that two prominent neo-fascist leaders have backed Restore.

"The real extremist position is to willingly import savage third world animals who attempt to behead others in the street," Lowe wrote on X earlier this month.

Farage has distanced himself from far-right agitators such as Tommy Robinson -- real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. Musk has expressed support for Robinson and has called Farage "weak sauce".

Farage has also recruited several defectors from the Conservative party as he tries to widen his party's electoral appeal going into the next general election, expected in 2029.

But the tactic risks pushing some voters to Restore.

In Hindley, a predominantly white, working-class area of Makerfield, 54-year-old Reform voter Darren said he plans to switch allegiance in future elections, praising Lowe for "supporting small businesses".

A 67-year-old who voted Reform during local elections last month was out distributing leaflets for Restore.

"The establishment underestimate just how pissed off people are," the man, who asked not to be named, told AFP.

O.Nardolillo--INP