Il Nuovo Postiglione - Family affair: Thailand waning dynasty still election kingmaker

Polling indicates Pheu Thai, the latest incarnation of the organisation founded by telecom billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, is currently third, ahead of elections this weekend.

A nationwide survey of 2,500 people by the independent National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) suggests Pheu Thai would capture only around 16 percent of the vote, a fraction of the support it commanded in its heyday.

Long reviled by conservatives, the populist machine also now appeals less to reformists, as they turn instead to the top-ranked People's Party.

While Thaksin serves a one-year prison sentence for corruption, his nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat has been installed as the party's prime ministerial candidate. If elected, he would be the family's fifth premier in 25 years.

The previous four were all removed by either military coups or court orders.

"All things considered, the party should be dead," political scientist Napon Jatusripitak told AFP.

"But on the ground, its network is still quite intact."

And the lesson of 21st-century Thai political history is to never rule out Thaksin's influence.

Pheu Thai just needs to "win enough seats to perform the role of kingmaker", Napon said.

- Red Shirts -

In the early 2000s, Thaksin broke the mould of Thai politics with populist policies that earned him the adoration of millions, and previously unprecedented overall election victories.

He was ousted by a military coup and fled the country, while his die-hard red-shirted supporters took to the streets of the capital in 2010 after he was convicted in absentia of graft.

Human Rights Watch said at least 90 people were killed in clashes with authorities. Around a dozen protest leaders were jailed.

At a Pheu Thai campaign stop in Saraburi province, retiree Chanapa Lekhawattanakul sold party T-shirts for 100 baht ($3), some featuring Thaksin's likeness.

His government had provided her with free medicine, the 65-year-old said, and the shirts were "so that nobody forgets Thaksin".

"I have been a fan of this party for 20 years," she told AFP. "I will not leave him. He gave many people chances."

Even from prison, Thaksin retains a paramount role as the party financier and household name, said Napon, of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

At Pheu Thai rallies, he added, speakers urge the crowd to roar so that Thaksin "could hear your cheers from jail".

"In the minds of ordinary voters, they still remember some of the legacies of Thai Rak Thai, including the 30-baht universal health care, and more broadly, what the Shinawatra brand meant to them," he said, referring to the party's original name.

- Unholy alliance -

But the country's pro-military, pro-monarchy elite see Pheu Thai's populist approach as a threat to the traditional social order.

The two foes came together in a marriage of convenience after the last election in 2023 to deny the previous version of the People's Party power despite it topping that poll, and Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn became prime minister.

The constitutional court removed her last year after she called a Thai military commander her "opponent" in a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, sparking political and public backlash.

Yodchanan, a professor of biomedical engineering, has now been plucked from the lecture halls of Mahidol University to carry the family banner.

"Thaksin is a really nice guy and intellectual," his 46-year-old nephew told AFP.

"We're quite close because we are family, but not recently."

As candidate for prime minister, he insisted, "I'm on my own."

"The land is very big," he proclaimed. "No shadow will cover the land."

No party is expected to win a majority, and some anticipate a coalition deal in which Pheu Thai back incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to retain his post while Thaksin is released early from prison.

And while Pheu Thai was once considered a driving force for reforms benefitting ordinary Thais, critics say it has become a vehicle for its controlling family.

"Thaksin is still the owner of Pheu Thai, not only the spiritual leader," said Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a law professor at Thammasat University.

"That is the problem of Pheu Thai," he added.

"Pheu Thai should develop to be a real party, not just like a family business."

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D.Ricci--INP