Il Nuovo Postiglione - Venezuelan opposition blindsided by Trump, waiting it out

Widely considered the victors in the 2024 presidential election that Maduro was accused of stealing, the opposition may long have hoped for exactly the kind of operation that saw Maduro whisked away by US troops to stand trial in New York.

But instead of taking his place, the opposition found itself snubbed by Trump as Maduro's "Chavista" movement remained in power and an acolyte was sworn in as acting president.

Analysts and insiders say Venezuela's opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, lacks the organized structures and expertise needed for governing, and crucially, the support of the military.

"I don't want to lie and say we weren't expecting something different," Freddy Guevara Cortez, of the Voluntad Popular party in coalition with Machado's opposition movement, told AFP of the aftermath of Maduro's fall.

"But I think we understand the dynamics, and what we have to do is adjust to reality," said Guevara, who works for the movement in exile in the United States.

For now, that means waiting out the administration of stand-in president Delcy Rodriguez, a Maduro loyalist that Trump has said he can work with, so long as she toes Washington's line and give it free rein with Venezuela's oil.

"If Delcy Rodriguez does everything Trump wants, she will lose the (internal) support she needs to stay in power," predicted Guevara, a former political prisoner turned researcher.

"And if she doesn't comply with Trump, they (Washington) will probably topple her or something worse," he added.

- 'Total access' to oil -

Rodriguez has the avowed loyalty of Venezuela's military and state institutions: her brother is the influential head of parliament.

Machado, meanwhile, has yet to return to Venezuela from where she disappeared under cover after months in hiding to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo in December.

Trump, who himself had a keen eye on the Nobel, has since said Machado "doesn't have the support" in Venezuela to be its leader.

And Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who became the opposition's presidential candidate after the Maduro state machinery disqualified Machado, remains in exile.

"The opposition lacks an institutional structure or influence over the government that would allow it to manage the (political) transition," Venezuelan analyst Ricardo Rios told AFP.

For years, Washington tried to get rid of Maduro with a battery of sanctions and an embargo on oil -- of which the South American country has more proven reserves than any other in the world.

The United States supported successive opposition claims to election victory, by Juan Guaido in 2018 and Gonzalez Urrutia in 2024.

Yet with Maduro finally out, Trump turned not to Machado or Gonzalez Urrutia, but to the deposed leader's cronies.

"Trump is 'hacking'" into what remains of Maduro's government, and "making it work for him," said Rios.

Trump himself has said that what he wants from Rodriguez is "total access" to Venezuelan oil.

Machado, who repeatedly praised Trump and his massive military buildup in the Caribbean that ultimately led to Maduro's toppling, said Monday she had not spoken to the Republican since October 10.

The opposition "cannot keep pinning all its hopes on solutions decided in Washington," said Mariano de Alba, a Venezuelan geopolitics expert.

- 'Serpent and its lieutenants' -

Opposition supporters who voted for Gonzalez Urrutia in overwhelming numbers have mostly gone underground while Caracas has seen daily pro-Maduro demonstrations since his ouster.

"Let us stay vigilant, active, and organized until the democratic transition is achieved," Machado urged on social media.

But widespread fear has taken hold ever since thousands of people were arrested for protesting Maduro's contested 2024 election victory claim.

Dozens, possibly hundreds, of opposition leaders and critics remain in exile or under arrest.

Another hurdle is the military's historic allegiance to Maduro and his political movement.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello -- widely seen as the powers behind the throne -- were present Monday for Rodriguez's swearing-in.

And unless they too are deposed, there is little hope of the opposition running Venezuelan institutions in any meaningful way.

"For there to be a transition in Venezuela, Diosdado Cabello cannot be present in it. He is the one who has the power internally," said Jose Antonio Colina, a former Venezuelan military officer who founded the Veppex opposition group for exiled Venezuelans in Miami.

"The United States took the head, took the leader, but internally they left the serpent and its lieutenants."

E.Accardi--INP