Il Nuovo Postiglione - US Republicans sweat toss-up election in traditional stronghold

Trump isn't on Tuesday's ballot for the House of Representatives seat in Tennessee's 7th District -- but his shadow looms large over the special election in what was one of his party's safest strongholds -- a district he carried by 22 points in 2024.

But Republicans are scrambling to avoid humiliation in what was once viewed as a sleepy contest, as polls show a race too close for comfort.

A Democratic upset -- or even a narrow Republican win -- would jolt Washington and deepen Republican fears of losing the House in 2026. With only a two-vote cushion on the floor, party lawmakers say the consequences of voter apathy could be dire.

"We're literally three people away from losing the majority," said Tennessee Republican Congressman Tim Burchett. "You can have a bad case of the flu go through Congress, and we'd be out of the majority. That's how important this election is."

The panic comes amid a run of Democratic momentum. Just weeks ago, the party swept major races in Virginia and New Jersey and won the New York mayoralty, a string of victories widely interpreted as a rebuke to Trump's return to power.

The White House has noticed -- and so has Trump. The president held a tele-rally Monday night alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson, who campaigned throughout Monday with the Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps.

The West Point graduate and retired special-operations helicopter pilot is running as an unwavering Trump loyalist focused on law-and-order, border security and low taxes.

- Steep drop -

He faces Democratic state representative Aftyn Behn, a former social worker who has pushed progressive legislation on grocery-tax relief, rural health care, abortion access and marijuana reform.

Republicans have zeroed in on Behn's social-media posts from the 2020 racial-justice protests, in which she amplified "defund the police" slogans and shared a message appearing to justify burning down a police station.

Trump urged voters to reject her as he dialed into a Van Epps event on Monday, telling the crowd: "Number one, she hates Christianity. Number two, she hates country music. How the hell can you elect a person like that?"

Tennessee's 7th District -- stretching from Nashville's Music Row through affluent suburbs and down to conservative rural counties -- normally delivers Republicans around 60 percent of the vote.

But the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps at 48 percent to Behn's 46 percent, well within the margin of error. Early polls in October had Van Epps up by as many as eight points, but also flagged elevated Democratic enthusiasm.

Republican insiders now predict a five-point Van Epps win -- a steep drop from former congressman Mark Green's 2024 landslide -- and concede that anything tighter would be alarming.

A loss, however unlikely, would electrify Democrats and force Republican strategists to rethink their entire 2026 defense map.

Early voting is expected to have favored Behn thanks to energized younger voters and Nashville turnout, while election-day voting should lean more Republican, especially in rural counties.

Both parties have flooded the district with cash and operatives, with Trump-aligned groups lavishing some $2.4 million on Van Epps while Democratic groups have invested $1.9 million in Behn, according to local media.

A.Rastelli--INP