Il Nuovo Postiglione - Election drubbing projected for Japan PM

Ishiba's governing coalition was already humiliatingly forced into a minority government after lower house elections in October, shortly after he became prime minister and called the snap vote.

Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito won around 41 of the 125 upper house seats contested on Sunday, short of the 50 needed to retain a majority, Nippon TV and TBS projected, based on exit polls.

The right-wing populist party Sanseito was projected to have made strong gains, winning between 10 and 22 seats, adding to the two it already holds in the 248-seat chamber.

Toru Yoshida, a politics professor at Doshisha University, told AFP before the media projections that if the coalition lost its majority, Ishiba "may need to step down".

Japan could "step into an unknown dimension of the ruling government being a minority in both the lower house and the upper house, which Japan has never experienced since World War II," Yoshida said.

At one of Tokyo's polling stations on Sunday, 54-year-old voter Atsushi Matsuura told AFP: "Commodity prices are going up, but I am more worried that salaries aren't increasing."

Another voter, Hisayo Kojima, expressed frustration that the amount of her pension "is being cut shorter and shorter".

"We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me," the 65-year-old said.

Ishiba's centre-right LDP has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, albeit with frequent changes of leader.

Ishiba, 68, a self-avowed defence "geek" and train enthusiast, reached the top of the greasy pole last September on his fifth attempt and immediately called elections.

But this backfired and the vote left the LDP and its small coalition partner Komeito needing support from opposition parties, stymying its legislative agenda.

- Trumped -

Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 percent due to bite from August 1 if there is no trade deal with the United States.

Japan's massive auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of the country's jobs, is reeling from painful levies already in place.

Weak export data last week stoked fears that the world's fourth-largest economy could tip into a technical recession.

Despite Ishiba securing an early meeting with US President Donald Trump in February, and sending his trade envoy to Washington seven times, there has been no accord.

Trump poured cold water on the prospects of an agreement last week, saying Japan won't "open up their country".

"We will not easily compromise," Ishiba said this month.

Ishiba's apparently maximalist strategy of insisting all tariffs are cut to zero -- although this could change post-election -- has also drawn criticism.

"How well his government is able to handle negotiations over US tariffs is extremely important, as it's important for the LDP to increase trust among the public," Masahisa Endo, a politics professor at Waseda University, told AFP.

- 'Japanese first' -

The last time the LDP and Komeito failed to win a majority in the upper house was in 2010, having already fallen below the threshold in 2007.

That was followed by a rare change of government in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan governed for a rocky three years.

Today the opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government.

The "Japanese-first" Sanseito wants "stricter rules and limits" on immigration, opposes "globalism" and "radical" gender policies, and wants a re-think on decarbonisation and vaccines.

Last week it was forced to deny any links to Moscow -- which has backed populist parties elsewhere -- after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media.

"They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn't put into words for many years," one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.

E.Scozzafava--INP