Il Nuovo Postiglione - Campaigning ends as violence-weary Ecuadorans eye Sunday vote

Ahead of a midnight campaign cutoff, President Daniel Noboa and his leftist rival Luisa Gonzalez held razzle-dazzle closing rallies Thursday, promising to tackle soaring narco violence, a lackluster economy and crumbling public services.

Incumbent Naboa, the 37-year-old telegenic tattooed scion of a banana empire, told supporters in Quito that his 14 months in power had changed the country.

Victory, he claimed, was all but assured.

"We are no longer a promise, we are a reality" he told about 13,000 fans in Quito's Bull Ring. "This country has already made up its mind. Now let's protect the votes, let's protect the will of the people."

Most polls have shown him with a sizable lead. But they have been wrong before, and he may struggle to gain enough votes to avoid an April runoff.

To win in the first round a candidate needs over 50 percent of the vote, or 40 percent with a ten-point lead over their nearest rival.

Noboa's brief term in office has been anything but smooth. The once-peaceful country of almost 18 million is in the crosshairs of international drug traffickers.

Organized crime groups from around the world are locked in a murderous battle for control of Ecuador's ports, a key launching point to send cocaine to Europe, the United States and Australia.

Noboa has staked his political fortunes on a hardline "mano dura" policy of tackling the powerful criminal gangs head on, and on his youthful "Action Man" image.

In affluent parts of Quito, shop owners peppered window fronts with life-sized cardboard cutouts of the youthful president in a tank top and shorts, or dressed-down with arms crossed.

On the campaign trail, he has strode shirt-unbuttoned shoulder-to-shoulder with heavily armed soldiers, and donned a bulletproof vest while leading spectacular ready-for-TV security operations.

The impact has been a surge in cocaine seizures, arrests -- and bloodshed, with the country witnessing its highest ever murder rates.

Tourist numbers have dropped, tens of thousands of Ecuadorans have fled overseas and investors are jittery.

"We are surviving, not living," said 56-year-old Quito street vendor Jesus Chavez, summing up widespread discontent over insecurity and the country's anemic post-pandemic economic recovery.

"There are cruel deaths, assassinations, crimes, it is a daily reality," said Chavez, who has been robbed multiple times during his hour-long commute to and from Quito's picturesque colonial heart.

- 'Declarations of war' -

Almost 14 million Ecuadorans are obliged to vote in Sunday's election.

From Friday midday, a total alcohol ban will enter into force, allowing fun-loving Ecuadorans a period of sober -- if slightly grumpy -- reflection.

Noboa's main rival is Luisa Gonzalez, a similarly telegenic tattooed single mother and heir to Ecuador's powerful leftist movement.

Gonzalez's campaign has focused on her coastal strongholds, and on mopping up votes in poorer neighborhoods where her political mentor, exiled ex-president Rafael Correa made his name.

During a final rally in the country's largest city Guayaquil she ripped Noboa as out-of-touch and vain, a "cardboard man" whose cash-strapped administration has neglected public services while issuing "declarations of war."

"There can be no peace without social justice, no peace without medicines in hospitals," she told supporters while flanked on stage by rifle-wielding special forces in full combat armor.

F.Criscuolo--INP