Il Nuovo Postiglione - Far-right AfD eyes huge win in east German state vote

While it is far from assured that Alternative for Germany will win enough votes to rule the state alone, topping the polls in Saxony-Anhalt state would heap pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and spell another boost for the anti-immigration party.

For months the AfD has polled at 40 percent or higher in the state, led by its top candidate Ulrich Siegmund, a telegenic 35-year-old who is feted like a rock star at campaign events and by his legions of TikTok followers.

His campaign promises include an immediate "remigration and deportation" offensive targeting irregular migrants, a ban on LGBTQ pride rainbow flags at public schools, and an end to new wind farms.

The Moscow-friendly party has also tapped into a sense of nostalgia for the bygone days of communist East Germany and resentment about an enduring wealth gap with the west decades after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

Siegmund has vowed to "make history" on Sunday and lead a political revolution from the small state of 2.1 million people that he hopes will propel his anti-establishment party to national victory in 2029.

The incumbent state premier, 47-year-old Sven Schulze of Merz's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party who leads a multi-party coalition, has put up large billboards beside highways that warn voters that the "far right leads into the ditch".

While many AfD voters pine for dramatic change, the scenario of an AfD victory scares much of Germany, a country long at pains to atone for its dark history of World War II and the Holocaust.

Germany's domestic intelligence agency BfV categorises the AfD's state branch as a "right-wing extremist" organisation.

In its latest report, the BfV documents that many AfD politicians in Saxony-Anhalt "employ language that demonises migrants" and routinely brand Muslim refugees as criminals, a collective disparagement that violates "the principle of human dignity".

- Anti-AfD 'firewall' -

All other major parties have so far maintained a "firewall" of non-cooperation with the AfD, although the tiny BSW party -- which is economically on the left but veers right on immigration -- has now signalled it may support the AfD forming a government.

Merz has vowed to halt the decade-long rise of the AfD by rebooting the stagnant economy and restricting irregular immigration -- but so far without success as the former fringe party keeps coming first in nationwide polls.

"If the AfD wins the Saxony-Anhalt election, it would represent a personal defeat for Friedrich Merz," said Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University in Bochum.

"He had aimed to cut the AfD's vote share in half. Instead, the AfD has overtaken the CDU as the strongest party -- even at the federal level. He bears personal responsibility for this outcome."

A state election win, Lembcke said, would show "the firewall strategy would have failed at the ballot box —- and neither Merz nor his team know how to handle the situation".

- Paths to power -

For now all sides agree the AfD's poll lead at more than 40 percent is all but insurmountable.

The question of whether they can win an outright parliamentary majority is more complicated.

Much depends on whether smaller parties cross Germany's five percent hurdle to make it into parliament. If some crash out then the AfD would need less than 50 percent of the vote to form a government.

The BSW -- which has already declared the "firewall" to have failed -- has recently polled below five percent but if it does scrape in it could help the AfD's path to power.

The CDU, polling at 22-24 percent, and other mainstream parties such as the Social Democrats and Greens, meanwhile hope to get enough votes between them to form a governing coalition.

In one scenario, these parties would aim to form a minority government that would have to seek ad hoc support from the far-left Die Linke party.

AfD politicians -- who would be excluded from power again -- would be certain to cite it as proof that Germany's mainstream parties, whom they disparage as an undemocratic political "cartel", are ignoring the true will of the voters.

"Even if the AfD doesn't come to power, the situation will become critical in Saxony-Anhalt," fears Anke Prellwitz, a 50-year-old high school teacher. "It will continue to divide society while portraying itself as a victim."

S.Maiolo--INP