Il Nuovo Postiglione - US Supreme Court hears voting rights case that could decide Congress control

All eyes are on whether the court's right-wing majority will gut a six-decades-old law that boosted Black voters' participation and impact in elections.

Because African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic, such a ruling could swiftly reorder the electoral map to give Republicans a lasting structural advantage.

The case centers around a challenge to a congressional map adopted by the Louisiana state legislature creating a second Black majority district.

Blacks make up one-third of the population of Louisiana, which has six congressional districts.

But following the 2020 census, Louisiana created a new congressional map that included only one Black majority district instead of the previous two.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and others filed suit claiming the new map diluted Black voting power and violated the Voting Rights Act, which was passed during the civil rights movement in 1965 to remedy historic racial discrimination.

The Louisiana legislature released a new map last year with two Black majority districts that was met with the legal challenge from a group of "non African-American" voters. It has now reached the Supreme Court, where conservatives hold a 6-3 majority.

Opponents of the redrawn map argue that using race to design congressional districts is racial gerrymandering prohibited by the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.

During oral arguments on Wednesday, Janai Nelson, an attorney with the Legal Defense Fund arguing on behalf of Black voters, noted that the Supreme Court has authorized race-based districting in the past.

Refusing to do so in the Louisiana case would constitute a "staggering reversal of precedent that would throw maps across the country into chaos," Nelson said.

The conservative-dominated top court actually heard the case last term, but in an unusual move it decided not to issue a ruling and scheduled it for re-argument during the current session.

ACLU attorney Sophia Lin Lakin has said the stakes in the case are "incredibly high."

"The outcome will not only determine the next steps for Louisiana's congressional map, but may also shape the future of redistricting cases nationwide," she said.

- 'One-party control' -

A decision won't come down before June 2026, meaning it's unclear whether diluting the Voting Rights Act would be in time to impact the November midterms.

Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House and an increase or decrease in the number of Black majority districts could help tip the balance in the November 2026 midterm elections, when all 435 seats in the chamber will be up for grabs.

According to a report by two liberal voting advocacy groups, Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter, a Supreme Court ruling striking down Voting Rights Act protections for minorities could lead to Republicans picking up an additional 19 seats in the House.

"It's enough to cement one-party control of the US House for at least a generation," they said.

The Louisiana voting case is being heard against a backdrop of redistricting moves in both Republican- and Democratic-ruled states.

Republican-led Texas has drawn new congressional district maps that are expected to flip up to five House seats from Democrats to Republicans.

Several mainly Latino or Black districts which Republican Donald Trump lost in the 2024 election in Texas were broken up to dilute support for Democrats.

Democratic leaders in California responded with a redistricting push to offset potential Republican gains in Texas, though it will first be put to a state-wide referendum.

F.Criscuolo--INP